At the 2025 Senior Living Executive Conference (SLEC), Arick Morton, CEO of NIC MAP, delivered a compelling session titled “Let the Data Lead the Way,” focusing on the growing gap between senior housing supply and demand. We sat down with Arick after his presentation to explore the critical takeaways for senior housing operators, developers, and investors. 

Q: Arick, you opened your session by calling senior housing a sector “ripe with opportunity.” Why is this moment so important for the industry? 

Arick: We are at a historic inflection point. Over the next 25 years, the U.S. population aged 80 and over will undergo unprecedented growth, far outpacing the rate we’ve seen in past decades. This is far beyond simply a demographic shift. Instead, it’s a structural transformation that will drive long-term, durable demand for senior housing. For owners, operators, and investors, this creates one of the most compelling opportunities we’ve seen in a generation. 

Q: You noted that supply is not keeping up with demand. What’s causing the gap? 

Arick: That’s the critical challenge. While demand has surged, supply growth has slowed dramatically. Credit tightening has made it harder to finance new developments, and construction activity has fallen even as occupancy and absorption have rebounded. In fact, absorption has been growing steadily for 15 consecutive quarters, which means we’re effectively eating into the limited inventory we already have. To meet projected demand and achieve 90% occupancy by 2030, the sector will need to develop at nearly twice its historical maximum construction pace, and more than 3.5 times today’s current pace. 

Q: How big is the shortfall if the industry doesn’t act? 

Arick: We’re looking at an estimated 550,000-unit shortfall by 2030. That translates into a $275 billion investment gap in senior housing development over just the next five years. Without urgent action, we’ll face not only an economic challenge but also a societal one, as our aging population struggles to find appropriate housing options. 

Q: You mentioned in your presentation that the wealth profile of today’s seniors also shapes this picture. Can you explain? 

Arick: Absolutely. Today’s seniors, particularly Baby Boomers, are materially wealthier than the Silent Generation was at the same age. They control over 50% of U.S. household wealth. This matters because it signals that the customer base can afford higher rates, and the sector has already shown it can sustain record occupancy even with regular rent increases. In short, affordability is less of a constraint than many assume, and this opens the door to higher penetration rates across markets. 

Q: What’s the role of operators in closing the supply-demand gap? 

Arick: Operators are on the front lines. They have the data, the resident insights, and the operational expertise to communicate the urgency of this challenge to investors and developers. Operators need to act as catalysts, using data-driven narratives to unlock capital and inspire new development. The next five years will shape the trajectory of the industry for the next 25, and operators have a unique opportunity to help drive the action we need now. 

Q: What’s your key takeaway for investors and developers? 

Arick: This is a sector with long-lasting, resilient demand and a severe undersupply. The fundamentals are clear, the demographic wave is here, and the window to position for growth is open. But meeting this moment will require coordinated action, bold investment, and a willingness to build at a scale we haven’t seen before. 

For more insights and market intelligence, read NIC MAP’s Senior Housing Market Outlook.